Nice floor, high ceiling, more appeal in mixed leagues. 2 Alabama erases 17-point deficit, wins SEC, Trade Lamar? The 6-foot-7, 215-pound righty had a brilliant three-level season and didnt miss a beat with each promotion, culminating with a 2.54 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 32% K-BB in 28 innings at Double-A. section: | slug: fantasy-baseball-top-50-keepers-for-2023-based-on-last-years-average-draft-position-adp | sport: baseball | route: article_single_fantasy | Position eligibility is determined based upon a minimum of 20 games, otherwise the position the player appeared at most . PFA, Odbel Herrera, FA Bad behavior makes it that much harder to find a job, but at last look he still had enough power and speed to hold down a reserve outfielder role. Excellent reserve pick in mixed leagues. Good contact at 14.3% Ks in the majors, and perhaps surprisingly hes been a 50% FB hitter. There is some raw pop there, so the bat shouldnt just get knocked out of his hand. Reserve B, Trevor Larnach, MIN Big guy, first-rounder in 2018, but his minor league line of .292/.374/.450 is that of a doubles hitter. Long and lean, hes started showing the power that scouts had predicted, without increasing his strikeouts, although 23% in the minors will probably be a problem in the majors. The real shocker is his 45.1% HH rate, and its now 658 PAs. The pitchers may fool him back to Round Rock, but more likely Thompson will stick around to pinch run and chase fly balls in the late innings even if his bat disappoints. So thats where the battle stands, but 27 doubles in 91 games is old school validation to me. Reserve A, Michael Toglia, COL Big switch-hitter, and a first rounder in 2019. $16, Harrison Bader, NYY Batting ninth negates most of the value derived from the Yankees lineup, and batting ahead of Aaron Judge negates some of his speed. $13. As a hitter, Acua is not quite top rung but hes close enough to predict as a BA asset, and therefore BA disaster is only a remote possibility. Taj Bradley | RHP, TBR | 550 ADP Eric highlighted how Bradley maintained his velo spike from 2020 and with his plus command, hes now a premium prospect a step away from the majors after 59 innings at Triple-A last year. The 26-year-old made his MLB debut last season and was almost immediately thrown into the fire as. To bid him as an average producer is decidedly optimistic. Bobby Miller & Gavin Stone | RHPs, LAD | 480, 510 ADP. Good deep league reserve. That would be good enough on most teams but the Cardinals may disagree and they are loaded anyway so loaded that a trade or even two is likely. 1 overall, he is a popular one, and every other player in that discussion figures to be kept. Im a huge fan of Brown, and while he is currently penciled in as the no. After returning for four games (and getting hits in each of them), he was shut down for the season, which likely cost him a shot at a September call-up. Anybody can struggle on first and second exposure, but a .168 BA in 558 PAs is flirting with the irredeemable. Definitely worth an eye on the SB and CS columns in the spring, as well as any talk of offseason base-running therapy. DL Hall | LHP, BAL | 463 ADP The Os are giving him a shot at the rotation though his command profile still screams reliever! to me. $9, Max Kepler, MIN Lifetime .232 hitter, and .220 the past three years. These leagues draft 50 players and thats all they get for the year no pickups or drops. Subscribe to The Athletic for in-depth coverage of your favorite players, teams, leagues and clubs. All Rights Reserved. I'm new around these parts, but you'll be seeing plenty of me. Todd Zola takes a look at which players will be the most impacted by the resizing of bases for the 2023 season. Will Benson, CIN Has size (6-foot-5, 230 pounds) and some power/speed. $3, Chris Taylor, LAD Worry that his slugging fell below .400 well below at .373. Not a guy you want to hang your season on, but worth a shot somewhere. Batting. Yonathan Daza, COL Will hit for average like clockwork, but not nearly enough power for an outfield corner and not nearly enough defense to play center field. Presumably the Ms have plans for Hummel, who also caught 18 games and so gets more interesting in some leagues. Will likely get a full shot to play, which means you cant go far wrong for $4. Harrison has the standard prospect setup: two plus pitches, a changeup in need of work, and spotty command, so there will be elements for the 21-year-old to work on in Triple-A. PFA, Khalil Lee, NYM Had 33% Ks at Syracuse, and nothing will happen until that changes drastically. PFA, Niko Goodrum, BOS From either side, all he can hit are pitches middle middle. Lazy brain: when Im in quick info processing mode I dont want to stop at the name and start making distinctions, so I detour around it unless I make an effort of will. $1. You'll find steeper discounts than this, but Varsho is a rare specimen as a catcher who gets everyday at-bats (because he's actually an outfielder) and also steals bases. Todd Zola takes a look at which players will be the most impacted by the elimination of the shift for the 2023 season. All four of the big sources I checked Baseball-Reference, Fangraphs, Yahoo and ESPN have Morel weighing 145 pounds, which is very wrong. His breakout campaign was slowed by a hip injury that cost him over two months, but he still managed 13 HR and 17 SB in 295 plate appearances at Double-A. PFA, Victor Reyes, CHW On a minor league deal, a contact hitter without the contact. Right?!? Eric Karabell and Tristan H. Cockcroft debate who should be the first pitcher taken off the board in 2023 fantasy baseball drafts. Or rather, Ill take him on one mixed league team if the price is low enough, and stay far away in an AL league. Harris seems to have a problem recognizing balls and strikes, swinging at too many balls and not enough strikes. Create or join a fantasy baseball league, draft players, track rankings, watch highlights, get pick advice, and more! Its always hard to read the spring training tea leaves, but knowing that the Cardinals will give Walker every opportunity to win a job out of camp pushed him up this board. Steadily improving Ks to 16.8%, lifetime 45% HH rate, uses the whole field. He had a nice little run but hes a marginal major leaguer: .221/.303/.434. His Sprint Speed has fallen far, from 95.8% in 2020 to 65th% in 2022, with an intermediate 73rd% in 2021. The new Camden Yards is less of a problem for a switch-hitter, plus hes in a better lineup now all year. $8, Chas McCormick, HOU His ADP of 495 flatly rejects the postseason hype, perhaps to a fault. PFA, Jason Heyward, LAD Anything is possible, but this bat has been dormant for years. He now has a 28% K rate in 214 Triple-A innings and while weve only seen a 23% mark in his 49 big league innings, it has come with a nice 13% SwStr rate. This is a Coors park effect, of course, but there he still is, and hitting in a prime lineup slot. He had a 2.59 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 28% K rate, and 9% BB rate in 1,089 innings. $6. As for his BA, I think his recent showing (.297 the past two years) is where to start now that the umps are calling the bottom of his strike zone more accurately. The power that appeared to be developing age 26 so theres not a lot of time left glaringly did not translate. The Leviathan, is on sale now, with updated rankings, projections, lineups and experts draft analysis. Hes just the type the Guardians like more speed than power at this time, he showed high contact that translated to the majors. This is not good. How, though, does a fantasy manager begin, or if in one already, sustain success, in a dynasty league? Bader is perfectly capable of stealing 30 bases, indeed I might expect it if he hit seventh, but then he has yet to play a full season. Therefore, we dont want Pham in mixed leagues except as a hole-filler if he happens to be playing. He is in line for the starting second base job and while his late-February finger fracture isnt expected to disrupt that, it is worth monitoring. PFA, Greg Allen, BOS Looks great when he doesnt strike out, which he does a lot. That said, Nelson is on the 40-man, had a successful debut (1.47 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 15% K-BB in 18 IP), and is firmly entrenched in that fifth starter battle. Sometimes there's a markup -- like if you drafted a player in Round 11 last year, you can keep him in Round 8 this year -- but sometimes not. $14, Andrew Benintendi, CHW Good real player, but roto-limited if he doesnt land a prime lineup slot. After an explosive run through Double-A (160 wRC+, 19 HR in 394 PA), Baty needed just a week in Triple-A before getting promoted to the majors. Negligible power/speed, the Pirates picked him up as insurance in case they start to get good. Conforto is good enough to be one of the somebodies, and good enough to beat the ballpark to some extent, especially if he forgets trying to hit homers at home and takes the doubles and triples that the park encourages. A delayed breakout means Wright isn't as young as you might think, and while the discount is significant, regression concerns are warranted due to his modest strikeout rate. Sure his power was down, but a 4.2% HR/FB was way out of character. The biggest question mark for me is the power. Casas showed off his power (.211 ISO, 5 HR) and sharp eye (20% BB) in a month-long debut, but a .208 BABIP saddled him with a .197 AVG in 95 plate appearances. Coming off his best season since he won NL MVP in 2015, the 29-year-old appears to have smoothed out his rough edges and become a full-fledged Fantasy force. Not that far down the depth chart. Grishams real problem is taking strikes. You may be opposed to picking a pitcher first because pitchers are riskier than hitters, and you want security in the pain-in-the-ass first round. This really shouldnt be. What he lacks in swing-and-miss dominance, he makes up for with a heavy groundball lean (>50% across AA/AAA/MLB last year). I think that makes even 20 SBs questionable. $8. It's not as simple prioritizing the biggest discounts. Ranking the top 200 keepers for 2022 fantasy baseball leagues including Juan Soto, Walker Buehler and Jarred Kelenic. Tyrone Taylor, MIL As long as hes an outstanding outfielder, which he was, Taylor is right on the borderline as an every-day player. Terry Francona threw him right into the fire against lefties, with respectable .745 OPS results, so Oscar is a virtual guarantee for more PAs in better lineup slots. $5, Yadiel Hernndez, WAS No question hes a major league hitter, and an adventure in left field, but it could have been worse. Opp. At age 26, the odds are lengthening. And he plays a mean rocknroll guitar. Gordon can yet be a star, all he needs to do is lay off one bad pitch per game. I guess well see, but Outman should be better than Chris Taylor and Trayce Thompson. Yoshida is not a big guy, but clearly he is very strong with a quick bat. Feb 28, 2023. $9, Nick Gordon, MIN Sprint Speed only 61st% but his 3.60 time stealing second base earns an A-. This list is for the sort keeper league that asks you to consider the valueof the player you're keeping and forfeit something, whether it's a pick or draft dollars, commensurate with that value. Its unknown whether the Mets will go with a full on six-man rotation or more of a makeshift version that keeps veterans like Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer on their schedule and Senga pitching every sixth day, but I wouldnt plan for more than 140-150 innings with a high-3.00s ERA and low-1.20s WHIP. Otherwise he should slap, dribble, bunt, punch and bloop all over the field. While he has a relatively secure rotation spot, the looming health concerns bumped him down the list a bit. The hard-throwing left-hander might have been the best pitcher in baseball for the first four months, and while his September raised questions about how well he'll hold up, it nonetheless may be years before we see him drafted this late again. 1 overall pick in 2024, and a good chance that again he will be Top 5. $8 right now, subject to revision either way. Basically he hunts the fastball and they know it. My general rule on first-year international hitters is to start with them as average hitters ($11) and adjust a few bucks up or down, individually as more becomes known. Youre not alone. It's imperfect -- and, yeah, to some degree the "confidence" rating is just a way of tweaking the scores to my liking -- but there is no perfect. To get. However, that could be coming to an end in 2022 and 2023. Hell run with abandon but getting to first base is going to be a problem 26% Ks in the minors translated to 41% in the majors. The 23-year-old righty was limited to just 76 innings last year thanks to a lat injury but dominated while healthy. I agree with Jeff Zimmerman that Shane McClanahans 2021 script makes sense extended out to six months if he breaks camp, netting something in the 135-140 IP range with around 80-85 pitches per start. but in non-keeper leagues, he is a good asset. 10 bold predictions for a wacky 2022 MLB season by Eno Sarris (3/25). Sheets has good power and something of a hit tool, but his problem has been recognizing balls and strikes. We publish player rankings by position throughout January - with projections and thoughts next to each player. $3, Robbie Grossman, TEX Lifetime .790 OPS vs. lefties probably dictates his role. The average draft position (ADP) included is from Draft Champions leagues from January 19 to February 19 at the NFBC, which you can find here. Granting that his endless injuries are flukes, still he chases, hes not a hard hits guy, he doesnt hit a lot of fly balls and his career HR/FB is 7.3%. $18, George Springer, TOR Like Marte above, a better play in mixed leagues. Fantasy baseball dynasty rankings: Top 300 players for 2023 and beyond, KD stars with Booker in long-awaited Suns debut, Top draft prospect Carter charged in fatal crash, No. The Tigers have openings but Davis is far from odds-on. PFA, Steele Walker, DET His third organization in the past year. Ricky Tiedemann | LHP, TOR | 570 ADP Tiedemanns eye-popping debut (2.17 ERA, 0.86 ERA, 29% K-BB in 79 IP at A/A+/AA) has him firmly in the conversation for the best lefty pitching prospect in baseball and at least getting some consideration for the overall best. Obviously hes biased, but Scott Boras assumes it too, as do the Red Sox. 1 as one of the game's premier strikeout artists, but his poor control presents a level of downside that drops him a few spots on this list. So hes not that risky. With all his injuries, not a target in AL leagues. Just 98 PAs, probably too small a sample, but I think its encouraging that his Heat Map shows he likes the ball inside while his highlight reel shows he can hammer the ball away. But this is nonetheless a nice discount for at worst a top-25 arm. Unless youre in an OBP league, Id say no. Brandon Nimmo, NYM Deep slump after hurting his wrist in June, which lasted into August, but he finished strong, so no worries. 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