Reflections on the Modelling of Caribbean Economies

This paper is a survey and assessment of a selection of economic models that are found in the Caribbean, chosen from two traditions of modelling: one, the medium/long term genre that has its roots in the work of Harrod and Domar, and the other, structural equation models in the Wharton/Cowles Commission tradition. A generalisation that emerges from both traditions is that potential growth in small open economies is determined on the supply side, by the capacity to supply internationally competitive goods and services, when competition is understood to mean comparable value for money spent on every quality of the product. It is also evident that capacity to supply depends on the supply of finance and on the quality of the labour force. The policy implications remain the subject of discussion, and further work is needed on issues of the mobility of capital and labour.